Bulls & Bears

Why?

So, a poster (DonIce) on Bogleheads shared a history of the S&P 500 since 2009 in a thread about markets in "free fall". I joked that in my house we get into discussions at the dinner table about certain "facts" and that I would tape his post to the refrigerator to end bear market arguments.

Well..... I decided to do it one better, so here we are with a near real-time history of the S&P 500 since Black Friday. Truth be told, it was a good excuse to learn how to create live embeddable charts and tables using Google Sheets.

What are you looking at?

First, Some definitions for how I report them here (there is no official definition, so you'll have to take what I give you!)

• Bear Market - greater than 20% drop in the index from a previous high (not necessarily all-time high)
• Bull Market - the period between Bear Market drops
• Secular Bear Market
  • Secular Bear Markets start at previous Bull high and continue until that level is reached again.
  • Secular Bears contain a series of Bear Markets continuing until previous index is finally breached.
• Secular Bull Market
  • Secular Bulls - period from the bottom of a Secular Bear until a final top reached before the next Secular Bear.
  • Secular Bulls may contain Bear Markets if index reaches a new high before another intervening Bear.
  • Secular Bulls overlap with the later portion of the previous Bear by my definition.

Inflation Adjusted - I have decided to record this using Real (Inflation-adjusted) S&P 500 index values in relation to the current index value.

Price Change Only - This is a representation of the S&P 500 price change over time and does not factor in Total Return (aka reinvested dividends.) Actual investor returns would be vastly different. For example a reinvestment strategy would shorten the total return recovery (even inflation adjusted) by approximately half for all three of the Major Secular Bear Markets. I know first hand that the 2000s were much better to me than this chart would suggest. But, this chart is about fear, not returns...

Intraday Index Highs and Lows included in the Chart

The graph below includes so-called intraday bear markets. Two recent intraday bears (2011 and 2018) did not meet the 20% requirement if only closing values are used. I have included them here since recency bias makes them fresh in investor's minds. They have not impacted the overall Secular periods though as new highs were reached soon after the bears ended.

Note, the period after the end-date of 2009 Secular Bull is technically undefined.

Old School Closing Index Values Only

So, if you don't want see those new fangled, intraday highs and lows and just want to see closing values only, I have that for you as well.